Garrity chooses Pimlico, Churchill Downs, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Belmont
It’s Friday, which means it’s time for another here-on-the-weekend edition of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping, in which we’re competing in a bunch of races in a short period of time. Today we have five plays in five races in just 35 minutes, on tracks across the country. We’re expecting fine spring weather, quick dirt and firm turf, so pour yourself three fingers of one of Dad’s Hat’s fine, homemade concoctions, and let’s go.
Pimlico, Course 8, 4:15 p.m. ET
Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, turf, fillies and mares 3 and over
Eight go into this first level allowance for turf women. The pace seems fast, which makes the choice 7-Mosalah, a 4 year old Maryland-bred filly who was last seen leading a decent third in a state-bred stake at Laurel Park. It was last October so she’s just coming off a layoff but we think this race will go just fine for her as the other participants are either speed types or seem to prefer dirt over grass, and the shape of the race should set the table. fine for its late charge. We’ll bet her to win at 5-1. The bet: Pimlico, Course 8, $ 30 to be won on 7-Mosalah.
Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:22 p.m. ET
Allowance, 5 stages, turf, fillies and mares 3 and more
This race is the funniest and most difficult handicap race we have seen in a long time. A full field of twelve goes to the gate, the kind of race that practically begs the player to take a hit with a runner at a price, and we do just that, in the form of 2-Coppelia, who showed some quality by breaking her young daughter in Oaklawn Park last month. This race was on dirt, and it’s on grass, but it has both the pedigree and the racing style to suggest that she will love the grass and the trainer. Phil bauer has a good eye for moving horses from dirt to turf. We don’t think she’s fast enough to take the lead early on, but that’s a good thing as the pace feels hot here, too fast for the leaders to last until the finish line. So look for Coppelia to sit right behind the first group early, and win with a big swing in the stretch. We’ll bet her to win at 10-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $ 30 to be won on 2-Coppelia.
Gulfstream Park, Course 8, 4:32 p.m. ET
Severance pay / optional claim, 6 stadiums, dirt, 3 year olds
A field of nine queues for 8th at Gulfstream Park, a conditional allowance reserved for children aged 3 who started for a claim price of $ 25,000 or less. The presence of a few one-dimensional speedballs should ensure a fast pace, with a winner coming right next, and we think it will be 5-Flamingo Hawk, which starts for the trainer Saffie joseph. He beat his young daughter quite impressively at Gulfstream Park on March 5, earning a very good speed figure, then continued a very fast pace to finish third in his first try against the winners on April 10. He should get an ideal trip sitting right behind. leaders early, and move forward as the speed horses begin to shorten their stride as the pitch turns home. We will bet it to win at 3-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Course 8, $ 35 to be won on 5-Flamingo Hawk.
Santa Anita Park, Course 2, 4:34 p.m. ET
Maiden Special Weight, 4 Â½ stages, Dirt, 2 year old fillies
It’s the first baby race we’ve played this year, and that’s in itself a reason to celebrate. A new crop of racehorses is a glorious thing, a sign that life goes on, that the world continues to turn, even in the midst of a pandemic.
The estate is made up of six juvenile fillies, and they are all beginners, so we rely on pedigrees, training information and the skills of the trainers to assess them. The one who combines them best is inside, Diva 1-distorted, who is by win-precocious stallion Distorted humor, and who has workouts that suggest she has speed. Look for her to go straight to the front of her rail post and win the wire-to-wire award. We will bet her to win at 7/2. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 2, $ 35 to be won on 1-Distorted Diva.
Belmont Park, Course 8, 4:40 p.m. ET
Allowance, 1 Â¼ thousand. Turf, fillies and mares 3 and more
Seven go into this first level weed allocation, but we only have eyes for one, 5-Caen Na Coille, a 5 year old mare who was bred in Kentucky, started her career in England and made her debut in the United States as a trainer Graham motion a month ago at Aqueduct, where she finished fourth. It was more difficult terrain than this, and we expect a step forward in his second start on this side of the pond. These two together should produce a trip to the winner’s circle, especially since she has a bit of early speed, and if the early pace is nonexistent, which is certainly possible, she may end up with a trip. dream, run loose on the head in very, very slow fractions. We will bet her to win at 9/5. The bet: Belmont Park, Course 8, $ 40 to be won on 5-Caen Na Coille.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the race, be careful and, as always, good luck out the windows.