Promise Keeper a bet against in Belmont Stakes
Promise Keeper won the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont on Saturday, proving he doesn’t need Lasix for his best efforts. Thanks to his victory, his acquaintances, including coach Todd Pletcher, plan to launch Promise Keeper in the Belmont Stakes.
In terms of numbers, however, Keeper of the promise seems too slow to capture the third stage of the Triple Crown.
To be fair, Promise Keeper didn’t make any mistakes in the Peter Pan besides running a bit slow in terms of time and speed. As seen in the race replay below, Promise Keeper quickly chased Wolfie’s Dynaghost with fractions of 24.53 and 48.62.
Promise Keeper let Wolfie’s Dynaghost enjoy a little cushion, but he never allowed Wolfie’s Dynaghost to go too far.
At the turn, Promise Keeper took over and fought Nova Rags in the extension.
After Nova Rags gave a brief scare, Promise Keeper widened her lead towards the wire and secured her victory over 2 1/4 length Nova Rags with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which are both quite low on the respective scales. . Promise Keeper’s teammate Overtook was 3 3/4 lengths behind in third.
The finalist Nova Rags is the one who passed out in fourth and seven lengths behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby (G1) after challenging the pace. After a troubled ninth place in the Kentucky Derby, Known Agenda also points to the Belmont Stakes.
If Promise Keeper is only two lengths better than Nova Rags at nine stages, then he needs to improve considerably at 1 1/2 miles to beat Known Agenda, who is also a stable companion, along with other Top 3s. years such as Essential Quality and perhaps Medina Spirit.
Known Agenda makes it look like it wants the distance longer. After a poor first corner in the Kentucky Derby, Known Agenda caught up enough ground to finish ninth – not bad, considering its traffic problems.
Promise Keeper could handle the distance as Curlin’s grandson on the dam side. However, his pedigree is unclear.
Promise Keeper’s mother, Mira Alta, is a half-sister to Great Hunter, who broke her young daughter in five stages and won the 2006 and 2007 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2007 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) before find himself winless for the rest of his 17 years. -race career. Mira Alta is also a half-sister to Aspen Light, the mother of the active router Owendale. Most people wonder if Owendale is better suited as a fence miler.
In addition, his father Constitution is supposed to give enough endurance. His stallion career is probably too early to draw definitive conclusions about his offspring and their potential for 12 stages.
From a visual standpoint, Pletcher said that Promise Keeper has a “great, bouncy, attainable stride” in NYRA running notes. Maybe this observation is true. But some of the typical traits of a marathon runner are lacking in this Peter Pan winner as well.
For example, look at how the third place Overtook runs. He sports a great endurance pedigree with Curlin at the top and the AP Indy Got Lucky mare below. Got Lucky won the 2015 Spinster Stakes (G1) and over $ 950,000 in his routing career.
Note how Overtook couldn’t keep up a nine-stadium pace. In addition, Overtook closed smoothly without showing any real acceleration. He just kept creaking. Nonetheless, Overtook never looked tired late. Passed the wire, he galloped past Promise Keeper.
On paper, it looks like Overtook would benefit from a slower marathon pace. If he starts in the Belmont Stakes, Overtook could work his way to a better early position and maybe fight just running at the same pace and making a light movement, as marathons reward this style.
Either way, Promise Keeper is likely a play-against in the Belmont Stakes, although he may end up being weak enough to rethink that opinion. If Pletcher decides to start Overtook too, then watch him longer.
Channel Cat captures Man o ‘War with aggressive tactics
After Wolfie’s Dynaghost failed in The Peter Pan, this blog scored an impressive winner in Channel cat, who paid a generous $ 18.40 to win in the Man o ‘War Stakes (G1).
Channel Cat’s race deserves a second watch, if only for the first drama.
Channel Cat and Field Pass took the lead aggressively before the first turn, with Field Pass eventually slacking off slightly as Luis Saez guided it.
If correct, the opening quarter went to a blazing 22.69.
Channel Cat also got them a half mile in 47.53, with Field Pass still close in second and a gap to So High in third, and a larger gap to Shamrocket in fourth.
Logically, Channel Cat was supposed to fade into the last corner after that early pace. Field Pass threw in the towel at that point, but somehow Channel Cat kept their lead. Ziyad had aimed dead on Channel Cat’s right and Moon Over Miami found room inside, but they couldn’t finish off the insane point guard.
On the outside, Gufo arrived at Channel Cat with one final run. He did his push a moment too late, however, as Channel Cat won the headbob for the gripping conclusion to Man o ‘War Stakes.
Channel Cat’s tactics were more reminiscent of the typical clay racing strategy, but sometimes it works on turf. Thinking back to Channel Cat’s form, he also won the 2019 Bowling Green Stakes (G2) with almost the same lap. Perhaps he prefers to set the pace.
Considering that Channel Cat has never won past Bowling Green so far, he should use aggressive tactics more often. He could become a division head.